Limits of deterrence

Rich Lowry:

The statement by the Hezbollah official the other day that they didn't expect Israel's response raises a point—assuming he's telling the truth—about the limits of deterrence. Advocates of deterrence and containment sometimes seem to think they are magical forces that always work. In fact, if someone is deterrable, it doesn't mean he will always be successfully deterred. Deterrence depends on everyone knowing the rules and not miscalculating. Hezbollah thought it knew the rules—that border skirmishes would result only in some tit-for-tat fighting. It wasn't that Hezbollah was absolutely undeterrable. It was deterrable in the sense that it cared what the Israeli response would be and was modulating—so it thought—it actions accordingly....
Hezballah did not take into account two important facts that changed teh calculas for Israel. First was the fact that Hamas had done the same thing only weeks before Hezballah suggesting that every Israli soldier was to become a potential hostage.. More importantly, the country for whom Hezballah carries a proxy, Iran, has been threatening to wipe Isreal off the map. That automatically makes anything Hezballah does a much more serious provocation. There is also the strategic benefit to destroying Hezballahs ability to attack Israel before the US or Israel destroys Iran's nukes etc. In other worlds, Israel is preempting Iran counter strike.

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